With Omicron BA2 triggered a large-scale Covid wave in Europe and some Asia again, a prominent Indian virology stated that on Saturday said the fourth Covid-19 wave opportunities were low, however, needed to remain vigilant. The probability is low, “but no one can predict it will not happen,” he said. Further note that we don’t need to worry about what happened in China and other parts of the world, he said, “the context is very different”.
It is required to remain vigilant…
“There is no scientific reason, epidemiologically to predict the fourth covid-19 wave but no one can predict that it will not happen. I can say the probability is very low,” Dr. Jacob John, former ICMR head to the news agency Ani He further emphasizes that it is important to be vigilant and careful. There is a need to continue to see viruses and genetic sequences and see if there is a new variant that appears and if there is a variant overtaking Omicron locally in more places.
IIT Kanpur COVID 4th wave model…
Speaking on the context of the 4th model prediction of IIT Kanpur, he said that the waves could not be predicted based on mathematical modeling “I do not understand how fear must be implanted in humans and for what purpose. So I do not believe predicting waves based on mathematical modeling. Mathematics modeling is only good if all elements enter into it.”
At the same time, noting that the virus moves in a very unexpected manner, he said that it cannot be said to be categorically that the 4th wave will never happen “People don’t understand one thing, Omicron is truly unpredictable. It’s not from Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Kappa, Omicron has an unknown location. I say this because if the unknown path or mutation Same resulting in a variant to be more transmitting? I doubt. So, I don’t agree with the fourth wave predictions, but I will not firmly say that there is no fourth for us waiting for and see, “he added.
The COVID surge in China…
When China reported a surge in Covid-19 case he said, “We don’t need to worry about what happened there because the context is very different. China has a zero covid policy. They are aggressively tested, quarantined and keeping the curve pressed for a long time. So now Omicron was unstoppable, catch in Hong Kong, New Zealand, China, wherever before in Taiwan everywhere. “
